“We shall renounce . . . the subterfuges.”
We estimated the equilibrium OMAD [operating (profit) margin after depreciation] of certain U.S. retailers using an autoregressive (AR(1)) model built-in RoyaltyStat®. We use the Gauss run-time engine, so the regression estimates are reliable.
In statistics, we consider a random variable in terms of a reliable estimate of its central value (center) and spread from the center. The center is measured by the mean, and the spread by the standard deviation from the mean. In practice, data samples (such as the usual judgement selection of comparables in transfer pricing practice) contain outliers that distort the estimates of mean and standard deviation. As a result, statistical (confidence or tolerance) intervals based on the mean and standard deviation may not be reliable. See Gerald Hahn & William Meeker, Statistical Intervals (John Wiley, 1991) for a detailed coverage of tolerance and confidence intervals.